Haiti still reels from its earthquake from one year ago, Darfur and Somalia fester, the Korean peninsula appears to be close to war, unemployment near 10% has become endemic. Problems, crises, tragedies. Can 2011 be anything but a repeat of 2010?
Over at the Rational Optimist Blog, Matt Ridley reminds us of the accomplishments of 2010:
According to the IMF, away from Europe and North America, the world was booming this year. Asia has grown by 7.9%, South America by 6.3%, Africa by 5% and the Middle-east and North Africa by 4.1%. China and India, with 40% of the world’s population, achieved roughly 10% growth between them. Moreover, this boom, because it is happening in poor countries, is rapidly reducing both poverty and inequality.
Despite the Great Recession, the per capita GDP of the average human being – that is to say, the value of goods and services that she consumes in a year – is now just over $11,000, up from about $8,500 (in today’s dollars) at the start of the century. If it continues to increase at this rate of just under 3% a year – as it has more than done for 60 years – then by the year 2050 the average citizen of Earth will be earning and spending over $30,000 a year in today’s money, roughly the same as the average American spends today. By 2100 she will be spending nearly $150,000 a year, or five times what an American now consumes.
This is almost unimaginable. Try to get your heads round the prospect of Africans and Afghans having the disposable income of today’s Americans within the lifetime of your own children, let alone grandchildren. If it seems fanciful, consider this. If my great grandfather had made a similar forecast in 1910, based on the then growth rate of the world economy, then even assuming he would not have predicted two world wars and a Great Depression, he would still have hugely underestimated the average income of today.
He also reminds us that people will be people; there will be wars and other tragedies difficult to bear. Yet, “it is unlikely that the great existential threats that each generation so warmly clutches to its pessimistic bosom will blow away this inexorable boom.”
At this dark, cold, austere moment, take a little cheer from the question: what could go right?
Matt Ridley’s whole piece can be found here: Reasons to be cheerful.
Nullius in Verba 