‘Sustainable’ projected to remain ‘robust’

This XKCD cartoon by Randall Munroe lampoons the notion of extrapolating anything far into the future. Buzzwords gain momentum, but then fall out of favor. Buzzwords, from my memory, that have had their place in the sun include: relevant, viable, resonate, robust. Let me utilize a Gaussian distribution curve to illustrate. Any others?

Weekend Postcards of Deforestation

I know the Weekend Postcards are normally devoid of argument and point making. But, I thought it would be fun to look at deforestation differently. To see that deforestation is not necessarily the result of logging (illegal or otherwise). Deforestation comes about from people using the land. Agriculture heads up the list of deforestation causes followed by wood gathering for heating and cooking [Source: Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010Key Findings]. Fires, slash and burn agriculture, mining, and hydro-electric projects also contribute to deforestation.

Agriculture and heating/cooking head the list of causes of deforestation.

Once the primary causes of deforestation are obvious, it becomes equally obvious that lowering the demand for wood (by using less wood or substitutes) will not make a difference in lessening world deforestation. It’s not the demand for lumber or paper that drives deforestation, it’s the demand for food and heating/cooking supplies.

Deforestation results from people trying to survive by eking livings from the land. “Some 350 million people in tropical countries are forest dwellers who derive half or more of their income from the forest. Forests provide directly 10 percent of the employment in developing countries,” says Jeffrey Sayer, Director General of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), based in Bogor, Indonesia, which researches better ways to manage and preserve existing forests. CIFOR is one of two CGIAR research institutes that specialize in tropical forestry. A 1996 report by the Consultative Group on International Research (CGIAR) states that:

[T]he main threat to tropical forests comes from poor farmers who have no other option to feeding their families other than slashing and burning a patch of forest and growing food crops until the soil is exhausted after a few harvests, which then forces them to move on to a new patch of forest land. Slash-and-burn agriculture results in the loss or degradation of some 25 million acres of land per year (10 million hectares).

This means that nearly 80% of tropical deforestation in 1995 came from subsistence farmers. (Source: FAO, Annex 6
Earlier global assessments, page 320
)

Vineyard. Alexander Valley area
Siskiyou county area
Wine grape Vineyard after snowstorm. Lake County, California
Corn field near Cooperstown, New York
Farms may appear idyllic, but they are not ideal from an environmental perspective
Vineyard, Napa County, CA. Agriculture is a primary cause of deforestation.

Discussing “Working Landscapes, Working Waterscapes”

Hetch Hetchy
Hetch Hetchy reservoir. Image by Phil Eager via Flickr

I attended a panel discussion at the California Historical Society, January 18, 2012 about appropriate land uses on public land. It was titled Working Landscapes, Working Waterscapes. Its purpose was to explore how we might “build a consensus” and perhaps “change the ways we think about and manage cultural and working landscapes within parks, natural areas, and wildernesses.” Is there a way we could “become better stewards of our public lands?”

The panel consisted of:

I captured as much as I could from the discussion. These are snippets:

Moderator: Is it possible to find or fashion consensus in the use of public lands for working landscapes? The initial answer is NO.
Panel:

Richard Walker: The guiding ideas of conservation have changed over the past 100 years. Recreation has changed from automobile sightseeing to backpacking ethic to “working landscapes” where many of us take pleasure in the idea. Working landscapes embody conservation easements and other ideas. Point Reyes is ambiguous because it originally embodied some initial ideas of working landscapes. Agrarian landscapes provide aesthetic value. This working landscapes idea is particularly popular in Europe with an ‘artisinal’ use of the land.

Kelly Cash: We all see the land as something sacred. On the Malpai some hardcore preservationists and hardcore ranchers found common ground and the idea of “Working Wilderness” was born. In the Working Wilderness experience, the people and the wilderness work in a symbiotic relationship.

Amy Meyer: ” ‘Wilderness’ means something different to me.” She referenced the Wilderness Act. However, she noted that some people see wilderness as a ‘wild place.’ “I don’t expect, for example, to encounter bicycles.” “No bicycles in wilderness.” “Wilderness, to me, is a very defined place.” “Being one with the universe.” “Civilization drops away.” “Temporarily, I’m a visitor.”

Moderator: Are there not some sacred places, such as Hetch Hetchy?

Kelly Cash: Sacred things can have piety to them. There are sacred spaces. Hetch Hetchy is one of those sacred places. We will be remembered for what we innovate. We need to innovate as much as we possibly can.

Moderator: Perhaps we want it all. We want our wilderness next door.

Richard Walker: People are passionate about areas closest (in proximity) to them. We have intense feeling about close in areas because we grew up visiting these places when we were younger.

Moderator: Are there any areas that are hands-off?

Amy Meyer: “Wilderness!” It is something you can not bring back.

Moderator: How do we resolve this?

Kelly Cash: In my dream world there should be another blue-ribbon commission. “We’re Californians damn it! We innovate!”

Moderator: (inaudible)

Richard Walker: Every inch of acreage around the Bay Area has been fought over. “Wilderness is not a given state of nature, it’s a political idea.”
“The terrain has shifted.” “Public lands are disappearing.”

Kelly Cash: “I think it’s a big mistake to say that fighting is the only way.”

The Moderator then opened the floor up to comments and questions. People generally made sub-audible statements to which one in the panel would respond.

+++

I came away with the impression that all the participants, Amy Meyer and Richard Walker in particular–and perhaps to a lesser extent Kelly Cash and Jon Christensen–felt that a pure form of Nature, with a capital N, exists. I disagree: it exists only as a construct of our imaginations. “Nature” is an ethos of those of us who are well off enough to not have to worry about mere survival. Nature and the ‘end of nature’ is something we wax elegiac about when we no longer have to wrest food, clothing, and shelter from our environment on a daily basis.

I would have liked to have seen an economist with an interest in environmental issues on the panel. Hetch Hetchy the reservoir, as an example, may have been “sacred” to everyone in the room, but Hetch Hetchy the dam provides valuable water to a populace that would be in constant drought conditions without it. Hetch Hetchy Valley may be more valuable as scenery, but if it is restored to its earlier undammed state, other areas will then be pressed into service and water will be diverted from other “sacred” spaces for the needs of the people of San Francisco. We delude ourselves if we think that there are only benefits from those places or projects we support or want to preserve in a sort of amber (e.g. renewable energy and wilderness) and only costs for those resources we oppose the use of.

While the conversation’s goal was to find common ground for a way forward, it neglected to bring in economics as a mechanism to achieve that. Economics is the study of incentives. Richard Walker dismissed any place for economics at the table when he said, (paraphrased) ‘It is ludicrous to talk about “ecosystem services.” Money has no place in the discussion.’ His point was that Nature is so important that it cannot commodified. I strongly disagree.

Finding the degree to which we humans can live with our alteration of a landscape will always be an economic question. Consider a thought experiment: would we want Point Reyes Seashore completely pristine if it took our entire Gross Domestic Product to transform it to that magical/mythical state? You and I would live in complete poverty (i.e. less than $1.25/day) in order to have this seashore restored. We would have to forage for food by trapping animals every day. Point Reyes might be a wonderland that only the wealthy elite can see but we would be happy that Nature had been saved at Point Reyes while (like the North Koreans) we pick kernels of corn out of pig excrement. Hallelujah. Praise Gaia. While this is an extreme example, you get my point. We can, and do, place price tags all the time on things like parks, clean water, and clean air. We just don’t usually think about it while we are doing this. We measure the cost of preserving land by looking at what we need to give up to have it preserved. And I would be willing to bet that none of the panelists would choose to preserve Point Reyes if they could never have enough money to get there, and its preservation took so much of our resources that the 99% could not eat.

Money and economics have to be part of the discussion.

Despite the monetizing of aesthetic and environmental services that parks and wildlands offer, economists do not try to put an exact and absolute price on these “commodities.” They just try to compare like with like. This comparing like with like is termed a cost-benefit analysis.

What actually happens is that when a cost benefit analysis says that this marshland is worth £squiddelypop as a nesting and feeding area for wading birds the statement is not that you can take the marsh to the bank and in return get the cash for this £squiddelypop divided by four pints beer. Rather, it’s that by their actions, on average, humans behave as if the value of this marshland nesting and feeding area for wading birds is worth that multiple of the value they put on that many pints of beer. We are not claiming that anything has an absolute value: we are claiming that human beings seem to put this value on it as compared to the other value they put on that over there. The only reason that we put these values into pounds and pence is so that we can do sums.

Another way of putting this is that we are using commensurable values because all of the values we are using are the (perhaps arbitrary, certainly subjective) values that human beings put on these things.

Now we have our method, this cost benefit analysis. We have the values which we can slot into our sums. We must now work out which is a cost and which is a benefit: sums notoriously don’t work out if you get that bit wrong. – Tim Worstall, Chasing Rainbows (emphasis added)

Or, said another way, if you remove Hetch Hetchy reservoir there will be a major loss of water to the people of San Francisco. The people who live in San Francisco would not have enough water to live there unless somebody else pays an environmental or monetary price (by diverting water from somewhere else). By relocating the dam to another place on the  Tuolumne River, another set of costs are incurred. There’s no such thing as a Free Lunch. Someone pays the bill.

I also came away with the feeling that Amy and Richard and most of the audience thought nature was static, that at some time before the 20th century or perhaps before the Industrial Revolution, but certainly before today, things were pristine and untouched. Just the opposite is probably the truth: that once we became wealthy enough to afford it, we could begin to set aside “natural” areas. I think that the fact that the discussion took occurred at all last night is a positive thing. And I think we need to keep talking.

Weekend postcard: Alexander Valley

This weekend’s postcards were taken in the Alexander Valley area in Sonoma County near Healdsburg. They were taken last year in May so the grass on the hills had begun turning brown in the shallower and more exposed soils. The grapes were in full leaf.

It was one of those perfect California days. I had gone to Bear Republic Brewery and had a flight of tasters to accompany an incredible lamb burger. Afterward, I went to hear my friend and fellow writer, Ken Dalton talk about what it takes to write his “Pinky and the Bear” series.

Dr. Whatsforlunch or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Chemicals

Some rationally optimistic thoughts from Matt Ridley are in this video.

Consider this: when we compare the farm yields of the 1960s to the yields at the end of the 1990s, we find that conventional (aka intensive) farming has, in effect, saved 44% of earth’s land from going under the plow.

 

New Forests Company announces suspension of tree planting in Uganda

Mubende in August 2007
Mubende in 2007. (Image via Wikipedia)

British New Forests Company (NFC) has announced that it has suspended tree planting in Uganda for 2012. The company says that will “result in 560 job losses in the Mubende, Kiboga, Kyankwanzi and Bugiri districts.”

The decision to suspend planting and lay off workers follows the outcry caused by an Oxfam report released September 2011 attacking the eviction of “illegal squatters” by the Ugandan government from NFC’s plantations.

The UK based New Forests Company is the biggest forestry company in Uganda and one of the biggest foreign investors in Uganda’s agri-business sector. The company has planted 27,000 acres (42 square miles) of pine and eucalyptus trees in Mubende, Kiboga and Bugiri districts and has invested more than $23m in Uganda since 2005.


Julian Ozanne, chief executive of NFC said in a media release, “Having planted millions of trees every year for the past six years and led the creation of a modern Ugandan forestry industry, we are very sad to have to suspend planting and lay off workers, forcing people back into poverty. Job creation is critical to poverty alleviation in Uganda and losing jobs is a negative development for Uganda economic growth. We very much regret this but have been put in a position where we had no alternative.”

For its part, Oxfam is calling on NFC and its investors to investigate the events in Kiboga and Mubende, make its findings public, and pay compensation and damages to the affected villagers.

NFC hopes to resume planting next year if they receive a favorable outcome in the International Finance Corporation mediation process.

Further reading:

Scientists Refute Greenpeace Claims About GM Corn

Greenpeace Germany Mag cover 1983
Greenpeace Germany's cover 1983 (Image by Brianfit via Flickr)

Lanham, MD; January 6, 2012 — An article in the forthcoming issue of the Journal of Integrated Pest Management (JIPM) refutes claims by Greenpeace Germany that the western bean cutworm (WBC), Striacosta albicosta (Smith), is “a new plant pest” that was “caused by genetically engineered corn.” The Greenpeace Germany report, which was written by author Richard Then of Testbiotech, offers a “surprisingly simplistic conclusion” regarding the spread of western bean cutworm over the last decade, according to the JIPM authors.

In Genetically Engineered Bt Corn and Range Expansion of the Western Bean Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the United States: A Response to Greenpeace Germany, corresponding author William Hutchison, professor and chair of the University of Minnesota Department of Entomology, and his co-authors maintain that the Greenpeace report fails to consider broader ecological and agronomic factors which explain why the WBC’s range has expanded, including insect biology, synchrony of insect and corn phenology, reduced insecticide use, increases in conservation tillage, soil type, glyphosate-resistant crops, insect genetics, insect pathogens, pre-existing insect population densities, and climate change.

The JIPM authors focus on several discrepancies of fact and interpretation in the Greenpeace document, beginning with its title, “Agro-biotechnology: New plant pest caused by genetically engineered corn. The spread of the western bean cutworm causes massive damage in the U.S.”

Despite the Greenpeace claim, the WBC is neither “new” nor has it caused “massive damage” recently. The WBC was originally collected in Arizona in the 1880s and was considered an economic pest of beans and corn as early as 1915. Over the last decade its range has expanded, but documentation of economically damaging infestations has been relatively limited.

The Greenpeace claim that the WBC has historically “been confined to very limited regions and did not cause any major problems in maize crops” is also untrue, according to the authors. Farmers in Nebraska reported major problems as early as 1962, and instead of being “confined to very limited regions,” the WBC was documented throughout the western Great Plains from Mexico to Alberta, where it was found in the mid 1950s, despite the Greenpeace claim that it was found in Canada for the first time as recently as 2009.

According to the authors, “a curious theme throughout the Greenpeace Germany report, is that Then (2010) ignored the possibility of other influences on western bean cutworm range expansion, including several ecological and agronomic factors.” For example, the increasing use of conservation tillage since the mid-1990s favors the survival rate of WBC larvae because less deep plowing minimizes mortality to insect pests that overwinter in the soil. Another possible reason is the reduction or elimination of insecticide applications, which has occurred with increased use of Bt corn over the past decade, likely resulting in increased survival of the WBC. Other possibilities for the WBC range expansion, such as climate change, were also ignored by Greenpeace and Testbiotech.

Out of concern that “potential misinterpretation of selected quotes” in the Greenpeace report may lead to confusion among future regulatory decision makers, the authors go on to give specific responses to other claims in the report.

These responses, and the full JIPM article, can be downloaded at http://www.entsoc.org/PDF/2012/JIPM-Greenpeace.pdf.

The Journal of Integrated Pest Management is a peer-reviewed, open-access, extension journal covering the field of integrated pest management. It is published by the Entomological Society of America, the largest organization in the world serving the professional and scientific needs of entomologists and people in related disciplines.

Media Inquiries should be directed to:

Dr. William D. Hutchison, PhD
University of Minnesota
(612) 624-1299; hutch002@umn.edu

Dr. Thomas E. Hunt
University of Nebraska
(402) 584-3863; thunt2@unl.edu

Dr. Gary L. Hein
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
(402) 472-3345; ghein1@unl.edu

Weekend Postcard from the East Coast to Left Coast USA Road Trip

For the return from the east coast to the west coast we took the more southerly route of Interstate 40.

After you get out of the Great Smoky Mountains in North Carolina and Tennessee, well, the scenery is not near as interesting, unless you really, really, like sage brush. We did like Oklahoma City though.

Resolved to go organic in 2012? Consider these 10 points.

Over at Eco Women: Protectors of the Planet! you can find eight resolutions for 2012. A few of them make sense: turn off any unnecessary appliance; choose tap water over bottled water; cut down on meat. These are, if not necessarily environmentally sensible, at least economically sensible. I have quibbles with their list but it has modest merit.

#4 on their list “Start buying the locally grown organic version of one thing you consume…Choose one product off your shopping list and commit to finding the locally grown or produced organic alternative” is wrong on all levels. Here are 10 reasons:

 

  1. There is no difference in nutritional value between organically grown and conventionally grown food. (see this by the Mayo Clinic)
  2. There is no difference in taste or texture between organically grown and conventionally grown food.
  3. There is no difference in food safety between organically grown and conventionally grown food. (see this by the Mayo Clinic).
  4. While some studies indicate similar safety, some studies indicate organic may be less safe than conventionally grown food. A UK Independent story notes, “Large studies in Holland, Denmark and Austria found the food-poisoning bacterium Campylobacter in 100 per cent of organic chicken flocks but only a third of conventional flocks; equal rates of contamination with Salmonella (despite many organic flocks being vaccinated against it); and 72 per cent of organic chickens infected with parasites.” And a post on the Scientific American site notes, “Between 1990 and 2001, over 10,000 people fell ill due to foods contaminated with pathogens like E. coli, and many have organic foods to blame. That’s because organic foods tend to have higher levels of potential pathogens.”
  5. Both organic and conventional systems use pesticides. Organic farming is allowed to “natural” pesticides such as calcium hypochlorite, chlorine dioxide, sodium hypochlorite, calcium polysulfide, copper hydroxide, copper oxide, soluble boron products, copper oxychloride, lignon sulfate; silicates of zinc, iron, magnesium, manganese, molybdenum, selenium, and cobalt, and host of other items. (The full list is available here in PDF)
  6. The pesticides used by organic farming can be worse for the environment. Whereas conventional farming can use synthetic pesticide that targets specific pests, organic farmers are left with choices that don’t discriminate and kill a broader spectrum of species. We know how this worked out for antibiotics.
  7. Studies show that eliminating pesticides diminishes yields. Eliminating pesticide use could cut corn yields by 30 percent, rice by 57 percent, soybeans by 37 percent, and wheat by 24 percent. That means to maintain our current level of food, it needs more land (forest or grassland) to be plowed up.
  8. Organic farming needs more land to grow its food and fiber.
  9. Organic farming needs more energy. More land takes more energy to cover. And, since they don’t use herbicides, organic farmers needs to plow more. Farmers plow to primarily control weeds (plowing harms wildlife, earthworms and such, in the soil).
  10. “Locally grown” is an arbitrary boundary. Why not eat only food that you produce in the window sills of your apartment if you want really local food? We’ve covered local grown before here. Buy stuff that makes sense. If someone is selling locally grown bananas near my place in Northern California, we know from the outset that it may well have taken lots of energy to produce—much more energy than growing it in its native habitat and shipping it to me.

 

 

Watch the video where Penn& Teller explain organic food. This is a piece from their show, Bullshit! (R-rated language)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhBKtjDtTVk&w=420&h=315

 

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The Food-Miles Dilemma

English: Over Farm produce The vegetables and ...
Produce with labels listing their food miles. Image via Wikipedia

In Michael Pollan’s New York Times essay, The Food Issue – An Open Letter to the Next Farmer in Chief , he says, “[W]hen we eat from the industrial-food system, we are eating oil and spewing greenhouse gases.”

It would seem to be a no-brainer that local produce needs less fuel to get to market than something that had to be carted halfway around the world, but cargo trucks and railcars carry more than pickups and vans can, so their fuel cost per pound is often less. Farm-to-market fuel is a small piece of the farm-to-table energy pie with transportation accounting for a small slice of the energy pie.

Household storage and preparation of food uses more than twice the farm-to-market energy (32 percent). Thankfully, we don’t hear pleas for us to give up refrigeration and eat only raw foods to eliminate the energy costs of storage and preparation. Oh, wait. We do hear that.

It is fashionable these days to decry “food miles.” The longer food has spent traveling to your plate, the more oil has been burnt and the more peace has been shattered along the way. But why single out food? Should we not protest against T-shirt miles, too, and laptop miles? After all, fruits and vegetables account for more than 20 percent of all exports from poor countries, whereas most laptops come from rich countries, so singling out food imports for special discrimination means singling out poor countries for sanctions. Two economists recently concluded, after studying the issue, that the entire concept of food miles is a “profoundly flawed sustainability indicator.” Getting food from the farmer to the shop causes just 4% of all its lifetime emissions…A New Zealand lamb, shipped to England, requires one-quarter as much carbon to get on to a London plate as a Welsh lamb; a Dutch rose, grown in a heated greenhouse and sold in London, has six times the carbon footprint of a Kenyan rose grown under the sun using water recycled through a fish farm, using geothermal electricity and providing employment to Kenyan women. – The Rational Optimist, Matt Ridley

Tyler Cowen points out that Pollan (in The Omnivore’s Dilemma) also “argues against free trade in agriculture, on the grounds that the economics will bankrupt family farms and destabilize the market; Pollan fears centralization and the industrial mode of production. He does not note, however, that New Zealand has moved to free agricultural markets—virtually no subsidies or tariffs—and its farms, including family farms, have flourished. Nor should we forget that farm protectionism, as practiced in the EU and elsewhere, costs billions and damages economic development in poorer countries that might otherwise ship foodstuffs to the wealthier West.”