A warmer and wetter world

I found a link the other day to a government website with global mean precipitation data from 1900 to 2000. Of course, I can’t find the link now (please comment if you have the link, but first see the note at the end of the post).

Anyway, I put the numbers into an Excel spreadsheet and graphed the data and added a trendline. (If you would like a copy of the xls file, please ask for it in the comment section below.) As the world warms it is getting wetter. As Matt Ridley writes in his book The Rational Optimist:

If you take the IPCC’s [International Panel on Climate Change] assumptions and count the people living in zones that will have more water versus zones that will have less water, it is clear that the net population at risk of water shortage falls by 2100 under all their scenarios. (emphasis added)

Global mean precipitation (1900-2000)
10 yr average-global mean precipitation (1900-2000)

Even the EPA cites the IPCC (2007) to say much the same thing:

As global mean temperatures have risen, global mean precipitation also has increased. This is expected because evaporation increases with increasing temperature, and there must be an increase in precipitation to balance the enhanced evaporation (IPCC, 2007). Globally, precipitation over land increased at a rate of 1.9 percent per century since 1901, but the trends vary spatially and temporally. Over the contiguous U.S., total annual precipitation increased at an average rate of 6.1 percent per century since 1901, although there was considerable regional variability. The greatest increases came in the South (10.5 percent per century), the Northeast (9.8 percent), and the East North Central climate region (9.6 percent). A few areas such as Hawaii and parts of the Southwest have seen a decrease.

Crops may flourish with warmer climes and more CO2. There is some indication that in California some trees are increasing their ranges in response to this change. While increasing temperatures do have their downside, they also have positive benefits as well.

Continue reading “A warmer and wetter world”

Plants moving to lower and warmer elevations in a warming world

A news release out of the University of California at Davis says, “study shows plants moved downhill, not up, in warming world.”

In a paper published last month in the journal Science, a UC Davis researcher and his co-authors challenge a widely held assumption that plants will move uphill in response to warmer temperatures. It turns out that plants respond more to moisture. The results are based on historical data collected by the U.S. Forest Service since the 1930s

Between 1930 and 2000, many California plant species moved downhill an average of 260 feet.  Jonathan Greenberg, an assistant project scientist at the UC Davis Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing said, “While the climate warmed significantly in this period, there was also more precipitation. These wetter conditions are allowing plants to exist in warmer locations than they were previously capable of.”

While the news release does not mention it, let me conjecture that increased CO2 availability may have played a role in the plants ability to move downhill despite warmer temperatures encountered at lower elevations. Plants do not need to open their stomata as much or as often for CO2 intake and therefore do not lose water through transpiration.

Many forecasts say climate change will cause a number of plants and animals to migrate to new ranges or become extinct. That research has largely been based on the assumption that temperature is the dominant driver of species distributions. However, the new study reveals that other factors, such as precipitation, may be more important than temperature in defining the habitable range of these species.

The findings could have global relevance, because many locations north of 45 degrees latitude (which includes the northernmost United States, virtually all of Canada and Russia, and most of Europe) have had increased precipitation in the past century, and global climate models generally predict that trend will continue, the authors said.

The study is titled “Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species’ optimum elevations.” Greenberg’s co-authors are: graduate student Shawn Crimmins (the lead author), assistant professor Solomon Dobrowski (a UC Davis alumnus) and research analyst Alison Mynsberge, all of the University of Montana; and assistant professor John Abatzoglou of the University of Idaho.

Weekend Postcard: Carquinez Strait

This weekend’s postcard is from Benicia, California’s third capital (1853-1854).

This Super Bowl Sunday is warm and sunny in California. The rest of the country may be seeing snow, ice, and winter. It’s 75F as I post this. Last Sunday poured rain. This Sunday pours sunshine. Ah, California.

The picture was taken from the north side of the Carquinez Strait where Benicia sits.

Run for your lives! It’s lunchtime at Dr. Strangefood’s

One evening, during the drearily sodden summer of 1816, Lord Byron and his friends read Fantasmagoriana, (a French translation of a German book of ghost stories—they were intellectuals after all) in his Villa Diodati in Switzerland (they were rich intellectuals). Afterward, Byron suggested they all write a horror story. Everyone did except Mary, the wife of his friend, Percy. She kept demurring, saying she had not yet thought of anything suitable. Then one night they discussed the rumor that Erasmus Darwin had electrically “galvanized” a piece of a worm; an electric current had made the vermicello twitch. Mary Shelley began writing a moral cautionary tale of what happens when arrogant science meddles with nature: “Frankenstein.”

In 1816, the Industrial Revolution had just begun. Dizzying technological advancements such as the spinning jenny displaced workers from their livelihoods. Angry bands of men, calling themselves Luddites, smashed machines, murdered industrialists, and fought with the military.

Today we are experiencing the biotech revolution. The human genome [e.g., all the genes that make up an organism’s DNA]  has been mapped. Genes from one species are being placed into other species. Genetically modified E. coli bacteria now produce much of our insulin and GE yeast produce vaccines for us. About one-half of the acres planted in the United Stated are with genetically modified crops that resist insects or herbicides. The result is less soil erosion (the primary reason for tilling is weed control) and pesticide usage; one estimate puts the amount of pesticide (active ingredients only) not used at more than 100,000 tons and climbing.

Just as the Industrial Revolution triggered riots, so has today’s biotech revolution: vandals have uprooted genetically engineered (GE) crops and burned research facilities. Recently, Marie Mason, who said she was acting on behalf of the Earth Liberation Front, was sentenced to 22 years for torching the Michigan State University’s Agriculture building. She told the judge, “I meant to inspire thought and compassion, not fear.”

That humans have been altering the genetic structures of their food for 10,000 years gets lost in the shouting. As an example, the wheat we use for bread came about from the crossing of at least three different species of wild grasses from two different genera. This new food had new proteins and chemicals that were never, ever part of the food supply before. One European Union report put genetic engineering this way, “(A) genome is not a static entity but a dynamic structure continuously refining its gene pool. So, for a scientist in genetics, the act of splicing to generate a transgenic organism is a modest step when compared to the genomic changes induced by all the ‘crosses’ and breeding events used in agriculture and husbandry.”

Consider this: natural breeding involves the random mixing of tens of thousands of genes (genes are recipes for proteins) from two parent plants, resulting in entirely new proteins and other plant chemicals never before part of the food supply, but anti-GE advocates find this practice totally natural.

Now, instead of breeding and crossbreeding, and then breeding again to breed out unwanted traits, agronomists can now select and place a single trait into a plant.

GM products are as safe as any other food products. The World Health Organization (WHO), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, and food agencies in the United States and Europe say GM foods currently on the market pose no health risk. The WHO says on their website, “No effects on human health have been shown as a result of the consumption” of GM foods.

“[T]he environmental movement has done more harm with its opposition to genetic engineering than with any other thing we’ve been wrong about,” says Stewart Brand, leading environmentalist who authored The Whole Earth Catalog. “We’ve starved people, hindered science, hurt the natural environment, and denied our own practitioners a crucial tool. In defense of a bizarre idea of what is ‘natural’…we make ourselves look as conspicuously irrational as those who espouse ‘intelligent design’ or ban stem-cell research, and we teach that irrationality to the public and to decision makers.”

“After 14 years of cultivation and a cumulative total of 2 billion acres planted,” writes Pamela Ronald, Professor of plant pathology at University of California, Davis. “GE crops have not caused a single instance of harm to human health or the environment.” Two-thirds of the processed food in our nation’s food system is GE.

Pamela Ronald has been slurred ‘a shill for industry’ in a recent letter to the Lake County Record-Bee’s editor. I suspect the writer had no idea that Professor Ronald is married to a certified organic gardener. Together they have written a book called “Tomorrow’s Table.” She has developed rice that can withstand two weeks of inundation, which will help poor farmers in Asia survive the monsoons. By the way, note the use of the term “poor farmers”: about ninety percent of farmers growing biotech crops are small and resource-poor farmers in developing countries, the majority of them in China.

It’s not Frankenfood; it’s just food, like we have been eating for thousands of generations, and it holds the promise to feed those most in need. “You people in the developed world are certainly free to debate the merits of genetically modified foods,” says Dr. Florence Wambugu of Kenya, “but can we please eat first?”

Nearly 200 years after fabulist Mary Shelley raised Romantic objections to science, some have labeled GM food as “Frankenfood.” Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, and other environmental organizations hold that we are playing god and meddling with forces that we cannot possibly understand. Yet, historically, predictions often end up quite wide of the mark.

About two hundred years ago, Britain’s Quarterly Review howled about “[L]ocomotives travelling twice as fast as stagecoaches!” Some physicians predicted that the incredibly high speeds (nearly 20 miles per hour) would cause psychological harm. Others predicted that passing trains would cause pregnant mares to spontaneously abort. “We trust that Parliament will, in all railways it may sanction, limit the speed to eight or nine miles an hour,” the Review admonished.” Worries about new technology have often proven to be overblown.

Let’s eat, and not confuse the product with the process.

Sunday funny

I wrote recently that Mick Hume over at Spiked-online had a thoughtful post on the “shocking” revelations that a British undercover cop, Police Constable (PC) Mark Kennedy has gone native and offered to give evidence for the defense. Now Josh at Cartoons by Josh has added humor. He worries “it might not play on the US as I think the policemen there have ‘Night sticks'” In our law enforcement training we called them ‘batons.’

Self-sufficiency = poverty

toaster
Image by healthserviceglasses via Flickr

In a recent letter to our local paper, a fellow wrote in that we should buy American products: “Americans all want to make top dollar for their labor but insist on buying the cheapest goods that they can find often made by countries with very low wages and lax environmental protections…We should always try to buy American made products and services as our first choice.” Be American. Buy American.

Now, I’m sympathetic to the argument that products from outside the U.S. have an advantage because of laxer environmental standards. Here in California, homegrown wood is more expensive due to the proscriptive regulations of the Forest Practice Act coupled with water quality and wildlife regs. A Timber Harvesting Plan adds $10,000-$50,000 to the cost of harvest.

Still, why should we stop at buying American products? Why not buy only products from companies in the western U.S.? Why not only California produced products? Heck, let’s keep our money in our county; after all our unemployment is running at twice California’s already high rate of unemployment. Keeping the money in the county will help put people to work; so let’s only buy Lake County products! Better yet, let’s just buy products produced in our own home! That way the money stays at home! Why didn’t anybody else think of that? Problem solved.

We can produce all that we need in our own homes. We can follow Thomas Thwaites’ example of making his own toaster (smelting iron into steel using his microwave is worth the viewing alone):
http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf

Radley Balko commented on Thwaites’s (unfinished at the time) project in June, 2009 with “I, Toaster.”
Matt Ridley also has a great post on this topic: “Self-sufficiency is another word for poverty.”

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Driving Missed Daily: London to Edinburgh by electric car

According to the BBC, it “took 4 days, some serious thermal underwear, and copious amounts of waiting” to make the journey from London to Edinburgh (405 miles) by electric car (Mini adventure: how far can electric car go?). Such a trip should take seven to eight hours when driving a car powered by gas.

Christoper Booker asks, why not reinstate stage coaches? “[I]n the 1830s, a stagecoach was able to make the same journey in half the time, with two days and nights of continuous driving.” If the idea is to lower our carbon footprint and become more pastoral, why not indeed?

When I was a kid, gas (petrol) stations were not plentiful in some places, so it was common to see one or two five-gallon Jerry Cans filled with gas strapped onto the rear bumper of a car. Given the lengthy recharge times for electric (versus 3-5 minutes for refilling a gas tank), batteries should be interchangeable. You could strap seven or eight of them to your bumper, pull the spent one out, pop a fully-charged one in and you’re good to go. Larger cars and SUVs would take more batteries. A trailer might haul the spare batteries for long cross-country trips in the United States.

What do you think? Will stagecoaches or electric cars replace gas/diesel powered cars and trucks?

Undercover cop goes native

Mick Hume over at Spiked-online has a thoughtful post on the “shocking” revelations that a British undercover cop, Police Constable (PC) Mark Kennedy has gone native and offered to give evidence for the defense.

Which aspect are we supposed to be most shocked by? The fact that the
police are so paranoid they have spent a fortune infiltrating a
conservative little group of eco-activists whose idea of radical protest
was normally to climb some trees, cranes and chimneys? Or that a group
of allegedly ‘hardcore’ eco-activists could be so easily taken in by a
cop poseur who apparently held no strong political views, but did just
happen to have a van and plenty of money he was keen to devote to
protests? Or that the state is now so lacking in institutional coherence
and loyalty that it cannot stop its top trained agents deserting the
Crown for a ramshackle green outfit?

Why should PC Kennedy have seen siding with the greens as a betrayal at all, given that so much of respectable and mainstream opinion in the UK sympathises with the aims of the eco-activists today, if not always with their tactics? Little wonder perhaps, as other activists have noted, that he seemed so enthusiastic about the protests and later so upset at having helped get them arrested.

Despite their self-image as radical harbingers of change, these
environmentalist protestors espouse essentially conservative and
conformist views about the need to curtail economic growth and impose
austerity…

PC Kennedy and his tribe yearn for a day where change doesn’t move so fast and they will live in harmony with their world. Good luck with that. In the name of a predicted threat one hundred years off, they want to make coal more expensive and raise the price of electricity, hurting the least able to afford higher bills.

Every day seven billion of us get about the business of living. Simple survival is priority one for our bottom billion. In the name of a predicted threat one hundred years off, PC Kennedy and his tribe fret over humankind’s 2% contribution in the total carbon cycle and hurt those most in need by promoting the idea of growing our fuel instead of growing food.

If this affair has highlighted the basic conservatism of the radical green groups’ politics, it has also pointed to the problems created by the incoherence and elitism of their organisation.