2009 Fire Season Outlook for Western US

Northern California Again Poised to Add Millions of Tons of Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere Due to Wildfires

Northern California saw nearly a million acres burned last summer. This year may see a repeat of last season. That assessment comes the National Interagency Fire Center‘s (NIFC) Predictive Services, which, in its assessment, evaluated the condition of wildland fuels, weather forecasts, and climate and drought data.

Image courtesy of California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection
The Potential Is There, Ignitions Are The Unknown

“Whether or not we see that potential develop into another severe fire season in California depends on ignitions. Last year we had wide-spread lightning storms move through that area and ignite multiple fires… Overall, the areas with the greatest fire potential this summer are Arizona, New Mexico, California and north-central Washington.” – Rick Ochoa, fire weather program manager at NIFC

Washington, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona Have Above-Average Potential

In addition to California, north-central Washington is expected to see above normal potential or wildfire activity, based on persistent drought conditions. The Southwest, from Texas to Arizona, also is expected to see above normal fire potential until what is expected to be a robust monsoon season moderates conditions there beginning in early July.

The Rest of the West to See Lower Fire Threat

Elsewhere around the West, however, winter snowpacks and cooler early spring temperatures are expected to moderate conditions and keep the fire potential in the normal range for most other states. Although drought conditions are expected to persist in Nevada, the lack of moisture and subsequent lack of fine fuels are expected to result in a below normal fire potential. In Alaska, ample moisture over the winter, combined with a forecast for normal to below normal temperatures results in below normal potential for fire activity there as well.

The full seasonal assessment can be viewed at: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

NIFC Podcast: Robyn Heffernan, NIFC Meteorologist Discusses 2009 fire season outlook

Update: Fire information can be found at InciWeb. Here’s the latest on Santa Barbara’s Jesusita Fire.


Ersatz Coffee

As you may know, I’m supposed to cut down on my coffee drinking. I’ve written about it before, here (Coffee East of Java), here (Coffee, East of Java, Part Deux), and here (Teecino, Not Quite Coffee).

Well, I have found something that tastes sorta, kinda, like instant coffee: Inka Naturalis, an instant beverage made from grain.

Rye, barley, beets, and chicory root are simply roasted,ground and combined to make Naturalis Inka the perfect substitute for coffee and a great tasting drink in its own right. The toasted beets lend a subtle sweetness that is naturally satisfying.

If toasted beets aren’t for you. Or you want to do it yourself and get rid of weeds at the same time, perhaps you’d like to toast some dandelion roots? Yes, you would? Really? Then Ruth D’Alessandro, the urban gardener over at nuturenet.net, has the recipe here for you. According to the poster, the result turned out to be, “Not unlike coffee, actually…”

“Not unlike coffee.” That sounds like stuff I’ve had in fast food joints. Anyway, now I have a reason not to mow the lawn. I need those weeds for my ersatz coffee.

Timber’s Term of the Week: Barber Chair

Barber Chair

n

Barber chair. Photo credit: International Society of Arboriculture, International Society of Arboriculture, Bugwood.org
Barber chair. Photo credit: International Society of Arboriculture, International Society of Arboriculture, Bugwood.org
  1. A tree that, while in the process of receiving the back cut, splits lengthwise and leaves a vertical piece of wood on top of the stump. The remaining piece sticking up in the air is reminiscent of a chair.
  2. The splitting of the butt of the log during the latter part of the fall.  The tree may remain attached to the stump, creating a danger zone, and resulting in a large deduction in the net volume in the log. (Source – Occupational Safety & Health Administration)

Synonyms: tomb-stone

Each tree gives a lesson—not necessarily free of charge—in physics and magic. So many things can go wrong during a falling operation and the barber chair is just one of those events. I wasn’t able to find a definitve etymology of the term. It may be just the appearance of the end result. The term barber chair may be so named because (this is complete conjecture on my part) it takes “a little off the top,” like the timber faller’s head, perhaps.

References:

 

Timber's Term of the Week: Barber Chair

Barber Chair

n

  1. A tree that, while in the process of receiving the back cut, splits lengthwise and leaves a vertical piece of wood on top of the stump. The remaining piece sticking up in the air is reminiscent of a chair.
  2. The splitting of the butt of the log during the latter part of the fall.  The tree may remain attached to the stump, creating a danger zone, and resulting in a large deduction in the net volume in the log. (Source – Occupational Safety & Health Administration)

Synonyms: tomb-stone

Each tree gives a lesson—not necessarily free of charge—in physics and magic. So many things can go wrong during a falling operation and the barber chair is just one of those events. I wasn’t able to find a definitve etymology of the term. It may be just the appearance of the end result. The term barber chair may be so named because (this is complete conjecture on my part) it takes “a little off the top,” like the timber faller’s head, perhaps.

References:

Green Giant Politics

Sequoiadendron giganteum occurs naturally in scattered groves only in the western Sierra
Sequoiadendron giganteum occurs naturally in scattered groves only in the western Sierra. The 327,769-acre GSNP is at the southern boundary of its distribution. (Nat'l Park Service image)

My wife and I are members of the Sierra Club. She, because she supported their agenda. Me, because I want to know what the arguments are going to be about. The other day, we found a mailer from the Sierra Club imploring us to write the President, the Speaker of the House, and the Senate Majority Leader to urge them to use their “power to finally bring real protection to the Giant Sequoia National Monument by transferring management from the United States Forest Service to the National Park Service.”

That’s what I like about the Sierra Club, they are for science except when they’re not. The Forest Service has a plan based upon the appointed science advisers. But, anything involving commercial harvesting scares some people. Harvesting especially scares those who want no timber cut commercially in the United States. Zero-cut is a bad idea for all the reasons I’ve already listed here.

Now, in these United States, petitioning the government for redress of wrongs is one of our rights as American citizens. I just don’t believe that the USDA Forest Service is the wrong place for the Giant Sequoia National Monument (GSNM). I was the assistant forest manager at Mountain Home State Forest, the GSNM’s neighbor. I bring this up, because MHSF has harvested timber for over 60 years and people looking for the GSNM think they’ve found it when they reached the border of the State Forest. So harvesting and old growth sequoia can exist together and even thrive. The two are not antithetical and may be more sympathetic than the Sierra Club and the Zero-Cut supporters and their ilk would have you believe.

Here’s what my petition says:

Dear ___________________________


I urge you to use your influence to keep the Giant Sequoia National Monument (GSNM) within the USDA Forest Service’s jurisdiction.

Groups interested in zero timber cut from public lands, including the Sierra Club, want your support to move the GSNM from the Forest Service to the Park Service, this is not only unnecessary it is counter-productive to GSNM’s articulated goals.

As you know, the Proclamation speaks of “restoring natural forest resilience” in the Monument. This goal requires tools: adaptive management. To meet this goal, GSNM’s vegetation mix has to be brought to a place where the vegetation has the ability to resist stressors (stability) and to recover from stresses once they occur (resilience), while best maintaining native biodiversity.

You are no doubt also aware that the shade-tolerant white fir has seeded under the old-growth giant sequoia groves during the past 100 years of aggressive fire suppression. Sequoia needs disturbance to regenerate and fire is a problematic tool due to Clean Air Laws. This leaves logging as the efficacious treatment to provide the needed bare mineral soil sequoia seedling require.

Logging around giant sequoia can be done without the adverse affects the Sierra Club claims. Mountain Home Demonstration State Forest (MHDSF) manages its land consistent with the recommendations in the GSNM’s management plan. This highlights the irony of the GSNM: most visitors don’t see any giant sequoia until they reach the State Forest’s boundary. MHDSF has incorporated logging its management since 1946.

Not allowing harvesting in GSNM will eventually require a name change to the White Fir National Monument.

________________________________
Signed

I will admit the White Fir Nat’l Monument comment is a little snarky, but it is true.

If you’d like to use my petition, it’s here.

The Sierra Club’s full text and online petition may be found here.

For technical peer-reviewed information:

Humboldt Wildland Multicultural Scholarships

Humboldt State has funds from the USDA Higher Education Multicultural Scholars Program for multicultural freshman and transfer students attending Humboldt State University starting fall 2009.

You must enroll in and be on track to graduate from the Forestry or Rangeland Resource major with your choice of options:
Rangeland Resource Science Options:

  • Wildland Soils
  • Rangeland Resource Science

Forestry Options:

  • Forest Hydrology
  • Forest Production Management
  • Forest Resource Conservation
  • Forest soils
  • Wildland Fire Management

To apply to HSU, visit: CSU mentor

Deadline: Freshmen must apply to HSU by March 1 (sorry, I just learned of it), Transfers must apply by June 1, 2009. Contact Lisa Perry (email: Lisa.Perry@humboldt.edu) for more information. She says, “have them contact me, we can make deadline exceptions in some cases for these under-enrolled programs.”

My thanks to Lisa.

Thanks to GIS and Science blog for the tip; they have more information on what’s available.

See the HSU announcement here.

Timberati on the Graveyard Shift Draft #1

Lee Lofland over at the Graveyard Shift has asked if I’d like to do a guest column. Lee’s a retired detective who’s “solved cases in areas including narcotics, homicide, rape, murder-for-hire, robbery, and ritualistic and occult crimes. He worked as an undercover officer for several jurisdictions, and he even spent a few years as a narcotics K-9 handler.” He’s written a first-rate book on police procedure, Police Procedure and Investigation, that I turn to when I want to make sure I’m in the ballpark with my descriptions.

Below is a first draft. I want comments.


For 35 years, I worked amid the chaos of life and death competition where only the strong and cunning survived.

Did I mention? We rarely wear body armor or pack our weapons.
Did I mention? We rarely wear body armor or pack our weapons.

It’s a place where no mercy is given, a place where no remorse is ever displayed, and a place where greed is the norm. Some of those where I worked plot overthrow of the status quo, then amid the scorched earth, move in, taking advantage of the devastation they helped create. Once in place, they create conditions for another catastrophe. Others insinuate themselves into the mix while siphoning off resources, biding their time, waiting for those above to die off so then they can takeover the top spots. Some poison competitors. Everyone uses the carcasses of the former inhabitants without regard.

And those are just the plants. Toss in people and you have a really interesting mix.

Makes ecology and forestry look a bit more intriguing doesn’t it?

The Dark Woods
The Dark Woods

What I wrote about the forest is all true. Plants exhibit survival strategies. Each order, family, genus, species, and variety has a way to survive and reproduce. Like the climate and weather, nothing in nature remains static.

In the Hero’s Journey, entering the (mythological) “woods” symbolized leaving the familiar and fully committing to the adventure. This part of the myth is called “the Initiation.” It is during the initiation the hero meets allies and enemies. I met both in my work in the forest.

I have been a forester all my adult life. My career started in 1973 with a summer job working for the (then) California Division of Forestry (CDF) on Mountain Home State Forest (MHSF) in the southern Sierra Nevada. I was hired on a permanent basis with the Forestry Division of Los Angeles County’s Fire Department for a couple years, and then returned to CDF (now the Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection, a/k/a Cal-Fire) in 1977. I returned to MHSF in 1979. Since it was so far from any sheriff’s response, the full-time staff handled basic law enforcement. I went through our department’s Peace Officer Academy, which is certified by California’s Commission on Peace Officer’s Standards and Training (POST). When I was sworn in, I was bestowed with the same duties and privileges of any peace officer in California. I have training in all the usual evidence gathering and enforcement procedure given to police, plus wildland fire and structure fire investigation, forest practice rule enforcement, wildland fire behavior, silviculture, forest mensuration, wood technology, etc.

But, my bona fides don’t float my boat like what goes on the woods; I just happen to have worked for a regulatory agency that tries to enforce the laws of man to keep the laws of nature from going too far off the rails.

In Humboldt County, a friend of mine was walking a skid road (a path along which logs have been dragged by equipment) checking to make sure the erosion control measures were correctly installed. A man with an assault rifle walked out from behind a tree, poked his index finger into my friend’s badge and said, “the shiny badge looked awfully tempting in my sights.”

If Lee invites me back we can talk about Cal-Fire, forestry, the logging controversy the Boy Scouts seem to be involved with, or anything you like. And, while I have checked guys with guns who claim to be hunting, I’m not a fish and game guy. Game wardens are truly crazy.

=====================

Well, is it good enough?

Timber’s Term of the Week: Deadhead

Deadhead

n

  1. A log in the water, either completely submerged or primarily submerged.
  2. A sinker log

Before railroads and trucking, most goods came by water. Trees felled, would be cut into log lengths, lashed into log rafts,  and floated down river. Some logs would sink. Some logs would only reveal a small portion of itself, resembling a head. The log’s ultimate destination could be a mill for sawing into dimension lumber or a port where they might be shipped elsewhere.


See also:

Greatful Dead

Timber's Term of the Week: Deadhead

Deadhead

n

  1. A log in the water, either completely submerged or primarily submerged.
  2. A sinker log

Before railroads and trucking, most goods came by water. Trees felled, would be cut into log lengths, lashed into log rafts,  and floated down river. Some logs would sink. Some logs would only reveal a small portion of itself, resembling a head. The log’s ultimate destination could be a mill for sawing into dimension lumber or a port where they might be shipped elsewhere.


See also:

Greatful Dead

The Copenhagen Consensus

On one of my post the other day, Anne asked in a comment, “What, other than cost, is the downside of reducing our carbon footprint [to prevent global warming]?”

There are steps that we can take to reduce a footprint, carbon or otherwise:

  • Move to a metropolitan area. Urban areas, due to their compactness, are more efficient.
  • Eat less meat.
  • Buy less packaged food. It’s healthier for you and needs less energy to produce.
  • Use mass transit.
  • Use less.
  • Ride a bike or walk.

Now, those are things that are “other than cost.” Should cost be a consideration? Only if there isn’t enough money or the resources to do everything. Since money is a consideration, we need to determine where to get the best return on our investment.

For about a decade, the world’s greatest economists have gathered to generate the Copenhagen Consensus (of which Bjørn Lomborg is a part) in order to prioritize where to put money. Research and Development in low-carbon energy technologies to combat anthropogenic global warming (AGW) wound up at 14th on the list of the world’s ills to invest capital in.

Here’s Copenhagen Consensus’s top ten list of the world’s ills where we will get the most for our money:

  1. Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc) (Challenge: Malnutrition)
  2. The DOHA development agenda (Challenge: Trade)
  3. Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization) (Challenge: Malnutrition)
  4. Expanded immunization coverage for children (Challenge: Diseases)
  5. Biofortification (Challenge: Malnutrition)
  6. Deworming and other nutrition programs at school (Challenge: Malnutrition & Education)
  7. Lowering the price of schooling (Challenge: Education)
  8. Increase and improve girls’ schooling (Challenge: Women)
  9. Community-based nutrition promotion (Challenge: Malnutrition)
  10. Provide support for women’s reproductive role (Challenge: Women)

You can see that concentrating on malnutrition and hunger,  freer trade, diseases, education and women’s issues will yield  greater benefits dollar for dollar. Attempting to mitigate AGW today ranks 30th on the Consensus list.

Download the results of the 2008 Copenhagen Consensus here.



Update from a Bjorn Lomborg Op-Ed in the April 24, 2009 New York Times:


Economic estimates … show that every dollar invested in quickly making low-carbon energy cheaper can do $16 worth of good. If the Kyoto agreement were fully obeyed through 2099, it would cut temperatures by only 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Each dollar would do only about 30 cents worth of good.




Rather than pledging to cut emissions and failing, let’s put our capital into getting wind and solar online.


Read an interview with Bjorn Lomborg: here.


Excerpt:


I think the main point of [The Skeptical Environmentalist book] was to challenge our notion that everything is going down the drain, and I don’t see any reason to revise that…I’m trying to recapture much of what the left stood for–when we believed in progress, when we believed that scientific understanding could lead us ahead and not just rely on tradition. … Unfortunately, I find that a fair amount of the left has turned towards a romanticized view of the world.